UltraBall Research
Auction vs Buy It Now
Across 10,136 card-and-grade pairs with at least three verified eBay sales of each kind in the last 90 days, the median auction sale came in 24.8% below the median fixed-price sale of the same copy. Against UltraBall’s own price, auctions cleared at 80.3% and Buy It Now sales at 102.0%.
Updated Oct 12, 2026 · Jul 14, 2026 to Oct 12, 2026 · Hourly
- Auction vs Buy It Now
- −24.8%
- median of 10,136 pairs, same card and grade
- Ungraded cards
- −30.0%
- 7,485 pairs
- Graded slabs
- −15.0%
- 2,651 pairs
- Auctions vs UltraBall price
- 80.3%
- 174,205 sales
- Buy It Now vs UltraBall price
- 102.0%
- 502,959 sales
- Auction
- Fixed price
Each point is the median, over that week’s verified sales of the format, of the sale price divided by UltraBall’s price for the exact copy at the time. 100% is “sold at our price”. Weeks with fewer than 20 sales of a format are not drawn; the current week is in progress.
Same card, same grade; median of pairs
Auction against fixed price
| Group | Pairs | Auction vs BIN | Middle half, auction ÷ BIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 10,136 | −24.8% | 59.2% to 87.2% |
| Ungraded | 7,485 | −30.0% | 54.3% to 83.3% |
| Graded | 2,651 | −15.0% | 76.7% to 91.4% |
| Priced $0–25 | 5,433 | −35.3% | 50.3% to 77.7% |
| Priced $25–100 | 2,307 | −18.2% | 72.9% to 89.5% |
| Priced $100–500 | 1,742 | −15.3% | 75.9% to 91.3% |
| Priced $500–2,500 | 533 | −11.7% | 77.5% to 95.2% |
| Priced $2,500+ | 121 | −5.5% | 82.4% to 106.3% |
Same card, same grade; median of pairs
By era
| Era | Pairs | Auction vs BIN | Middle half, auction ÷ BIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet | 1,945 | −23.6% | 62.9% to 85.2% |
| Wizards of the Coast | 1,794 | −23.5% | 58.9% to 89.1% |
| Sword & Shield | 1,509 | −27.7% | 56.5% to 84.5% |
| Sun & Moon | 1,156 | −24.3% | 60.0% to 88.3% |
| EX | 1,017 | −22.5% | 60.9% to 96.6% |
| XY | 846 | −26.1% | 58.1% to 87.5% |
| Mega Evolution | 837 | −24.7% | 61.9% to 84.6% |
| Black & White | 321 | −33.1% | 49.1% to 86.7% |
| Diamond & Pearl | 313 | −29.2% | 56.2% to 89.7% |
| HeartGold & SoulSilver | 208 | −25.6% | 57.1% to 95.3% |
| Platinum | 190 | −25.6% | 56.1% to 90.6% |
878,809 verified eBay US sales, 90 days
Every format against UltraBall’s price
| Format | Sales | Share | Median vs UltraBall price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auction | 174,205 | 19.8% | 80.3% |
| Buy It Now | 502,959 | 57.2% | 102.0% |
| Buy It Now, offer taken (asking price shown) | 199,264 | 22.7% | 91.7% |
| Best Offer accepted (price paid) | 2,381 | 0.3% | 109.1% |
A Buy It Now listing that took an offer shows eBay’s asking price, not the amount paid, so that row reads high; it is kept apart for that reason. “Best Offer accepted” rows are the few where the paid price is known.
How this is worked out
The sales are UltraBall’s sold ledger: every eBay US sale of an English Pokémon card the exact-card matcher verified against the card, printing, grade and language, with sales flagged unusual (far outside the card’s own price band) left out. Each sale carries the format eBay reported and UltraBall’s price for that exact copy on the day, the reference.
The headline pairs each card, printing and grade that had at least three auction and three fixed-price sales in the window, divides the auction median by the fixed-price median, and takes the median of those ratios; so a card counts once however often it sold, and a 1st Edition copy is never set against an Unlimited one. Bands are by the pair’s fixed-price reference. The “vs UltraBall price” figures are medians of sale ÷ reference over every sale of a format.
Full method on the methodology page.