8,500 packs measured · Rates checked Oct 4, 2026 · Prices Nov 12, 2026

Chaos Rising pull rates

About 1 in 3 Chaos Rising booster packs holds a card rarer than a Rare. The commonest hit is a Double Rare at about 1 in 5 packs; the rarest, a Mega Hyper Rare, is about 1 in 1,000. At today’s prices an average pack holds $2.75 of cards against a shop price of $4.49.

Chaos Rising odds by rarity

Per booster pack, and per booster box of 36 packs.

Rarity	Per pack	Chance in a pack	Average per box	At least one in a box
Double Rare	1 in 5	20%	7.3	Over 99%
Illustration Rare	1 in 9	11%	3.8	98%
Ultra Rare	1 in 12	8.3%	3.0	96%
Special Illustration Rare	1 in 85	1.2%	0.4	35%
Mega Hyper Rare	1 in 1,000	0.10%	0.0	3.5%

Odds of pulling the top Chaos Rising chase cards

One named card, not just its rarity: cards of a rarity come up equally often, so each takes an even share of its rarity’s rate. Ranked by ungraded price, as on the chase cards page. “In packs” is what the packs you would expect to open for one copy cost at the $4.49 shop price; all 10 cost less bought as a single at today’s ungraded price.

Is a Chaos Rising pack worth opening?

Average pack holds: $2.75
Typical pack holds: $1.71
Shop price: $4.49
Returned in cards: 61%
Packs worth $4.49+: 6.1%

Every card’s chance of turning up, from the rates above, times its ungraded price today, added across the pack. On average a pack gives back 61% of what it costs; most of an average pack’s value sits in the few rare pulls, so most packs are worth less and a few far more: of 20,000 simulated packs the typical (median) one held $1.71, and 6.1% were worth $4.49 or more. An average box of 36 holds $99.00. Ordinary reverse holos are counted at the card’s ordinary price. All figures are in US dollars. The shop price is the official store’s list price (Pokémon Center (US): Booster Bundle (6 Packs) at $26.94, $4.49 a pack, read Oct 21, 2026); on the sealed market a pack often costs more while a set is sold out.

Where these rates come from

TCGplayer Authentication Center, “Pokémon TCG: Chaos Rising Pull Rates”, from at least 8,500 opened packs. We last checked the figures on Oct 4, 2026. The per-pack odds count every slot a rarity can fill; a box’s are those of 36 packs opened one after another. Real boxes are packed to a pattern, so one box can come out better or worse than these odds say. We publish rates only for sets with a measured, named source, and never estimate one.

Pull rates in other Mega Evolution sets

Common questions

What are the pull rates (hit rates) for Chaos Rising?

A Double Rare about 1 in 5 packs, an Illustration Rare about 1 in 9 packs, an Ultra Rare about 1 in 12 packs, a Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 85 packs, a Mega Hyper Rare about 1 in 1,000 packs. From TCGplayer Authentication Center, “Pokémon TCG: Chaos Rising Pull Rates”, 8,500 packs opened.

How many packs does it take to pull a Special Illustration Rare in Chaos Rising?

About 85 on average: each pack has a 1.2% chance. A booster box of 36 packs holds at least one 35% of the time.

How many hits are in a Chaos Rising booster box?

About 13 of the 36 packs in an average box hold a card rarer than a Rare: 7.3 Double Rares, 3.8 Illustration Rares, 3.0 Ultra Rares, 0.4 Special Illustration Rares, 0.0 Mega Hyper Rares. Boxes are packed to a pattern, so a real box can differ.

What are the odds of pulling Mega Greninja ex 116/86?

About 1 in 500 Chaos Rising packs, 7.0% in a booster box. It is the set’s most valuable chase card at $125 ungraded.

Is Chaos Rising worth opening?

At today’s prices an average pack holds $2.75 of cards against a shop price of $4.49, so on average it gives back 61% of its cost. Most of that sits in the rare pulls, so most packs come in under it: 6.1% of single packs are worth the price or more.