18 sets · Rates checked Oct 4, 2026 · Prices Nov 12, 2026
Pokémon pull rates by set
Measured pull rates for every set we hold them for, side by side. Paldea Evolved gives the best odds of a Special Illustration Rare, about 1 in 30 packs. At today’s prices and the $4.49 shop price, an average Paldean Fates pack gives back the most in cards: $6.81.
Open any of these sets in the pack simulator, or record a real opening in How lucky were you?
Paldea Evolved · 203/193
The top chase card of Paldea Evolved
1 in 470 packs of Paldea Evolved hold Magikarp.
The most valuable card in the set, ungraded, today. See Paldea Evolved pull rates
- Best chance at a Special Illustration Rare
- 1 in 30Paldea Evolved
- Most returned against shop price
- 152%Paldean Fates
- Sets with measured rates
- 18
Best odds: Special Illustration Rares
Per booster pack, best first. Select a heading to sort. The rarest tier is each set’s hardest rarity to pull; the top chase card is its most valuable card ungraded today.
| SIR in a box | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paldea Evolved | 1 in 30 | Hyper Rare 1 in 55 |  Magikarp 1 in 470 | 69% |
 Scarlet & Violet | 1 in 30 | Hyper Rare 1 in 55 |  Gardevoir ex 1 in 320 | 68% |
 Obsidian Flames | 1 in 30 | Hyper Rare 1 in 50 |  Charizard ex 1 in 190 | 68% |
 151 | 1 in 30 | Hyper Rare 1 in 50 |  Charizard ex 1 in 230 | 68% |
 Paradox Rift | 1 in 45 | Hyper Rare 1 in 80 |  Groudon 1 in 440 | 54% |
 Paldean Fates | 1 in 60 | Hyper Rare 1 in 60 |  Mew ex 1 in 470 | 46% |
 Ascended Heroes | 1 in 70 | Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 530 |  Mega Gengar ex 1 in 1,530 | 41% |
| Pitch Black | 1 in 80 | Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,110 |  Mega Darkrai ex 1 in 480 | 36% |
| Phantasmal Flames | 1 in 80 | Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,250 |  Mega Charizard X ex 1 in 400 | 36% |
 Perfect Order | 1 in 80 | Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,670 |  Mega Zygarde ex 1 in 1,670 | 36% |
 Chaos Rising | 1 in 85 | Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,000 |  Mega Greninja ex 1 in 500 | 35% |
 Twilight Masquerade | 1 in 85 | Hyper Rare 1 in 145 |  Greninja ex 1 in 940 | 35% |
 Temporal Forces | 1 in 85 | Hyper Rare 1 in 140 |  Gastly 1 in 280 | 35% |
 Journey Together | 1 in 85 | Hyper Rare 1 in 135 |  Lillie's Clefairy ex 1 in 520 | 34% |
| Surging Sparks | 1 in 85 | Hyper Rare 1 in 190 |  Pikachu ex 1 in 960 | 34% |
| Stellar Crown | 1 in 90 | Hyper Rare 1 in 135 |  Squirtle 1 in 165 | 33% |
 Destined Rivals | 1 in 95 | Hyper Rare 1 in 150 |  Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex 1 in 1,040 | 32% |
 Mega Evolution | 1 in 100 | Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,250 |  Mega Lucario ex 1 in 2,500 | 30% |
Best value: what a pack is worth against its shop price
Every card’s chance of turning up times its ungraded price today, in US dollars, against the $4.49 a pack costs at the official store (Pokémon Center (US): Booster Bundle (6 Packs) at $26.94, $4.49 a pack, read Oct 21, 2026). Most packs are worth less than the average, because the value sits in the rare pulls: the typical pack is the median of 20,000 simulated single packs, and “Packs worth” is the share of them worth the shop price or more. The sealed price is the cheapest pack on the sealed market when we last read it, Oct 26, 2026, often well above the shop price while a set is sold out. 2 sets have no shop price on file and are left out.
| Set | Average pack holds | Typical pack | Returned at $4.49 | Packs worth $4.49+ | Sealed price, Oct 26, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates | $6.81 | $1.67 | 152% | 25% | $22.97 |
| Ascended Heroes | $5.25 | $1.75 | 117% | 14% | $10.11 |
| Paldea Evolved | $5.13 | $1.66 | 114% | 15% | $16.07 |
| Temporal Forces | $4.82 | $1.81 | 107% | 16% | $10.37 |
| Phantasmal Flames | $4.25 | $1.62 | 95% | 11% | $12.00 |
| Stellar Crown | $4.06 | $1.76 | 90% | 13% | $10.71 |
| Twilight Masquerade | $4.01 | $1.84 | 89% | 15% | $9.21 |
| Mega Evolution | $3.89 | $1.82 | 87% | 18% | $8.97 |
| Destined Rivals | $3.83 | $1.86 | 85% | 11% | $8.55 |
| Paradox Rift | $3.70 | $1.63 | 82% | 12% | $8.38 |
| Scarlet & Violet | $3.64 | $1.57 | 81% | 13% | $8.60 |
| Pitch Black | $3.26 | $1.78 | 73% | 8.9% | $5.87 |
| Surging Sparks | $3.24 | $1.55 | 72% | 11% | $8.41 |
| Journey Together | $2.85 | $1.68 | 63% | 9.2% | $5.79 |
| Perfect Order | $2.78 | $1.59 | 62% | 7.3% | $5.94 |
| Chaos Rising | $2.75 | $1.71 | 61% | 6.1% | $5.69 |
Where these rates come from
Each set’s rates come from a named source that opened thousands of packs, linked on the set’s own page with its sample and the date we checked it. A set appears here only once we hold measured rates for it; we never estimate one or borrow a neighbouring set’s. Box figures are 36 packs opened one after another; real boxes are packed to a pattern, so one box can come out better or worse.